​After record-high increases over the last few years, community colleges are seeing enrollments return to more normal rates of increase, and a growing number of colleges are even reporting declines.

Although many colleges won’t know their final enrollment number for another week or two, officials note they don’t expect too much variance in the data, which show, on average, a range of decreases from 5 percent to increases of about 5 percent. The reasons for the subdued numbers vary, but much of it boils down to funding, both for the colleges and for the students.

Michigan’s Washtenaw Community College is about six weeks from having an official count, but the prediction is that enrollment could be down as much as 9 percent, according to Linda Blakey, associate vice president of student services. That’s more than the 1.8 percent dip Grand Rapids Community College is experiencing, but fewer funding sources have contributed to the declines at both colleges.

The state had funded a No Worker Left Behind program to provide financial resources for up to two years of education expenses. The program has expired, which takes away an incentive for many workers to enroll in college.

Michigan’s changing population is also a factor. With the closing of many companies—often related to the auto-making industry—dislocated workers and others moved to other states.

Fewer high school graduates has also contributed to lower enrollments at colleges, a predicted trend that is already affecting colleges across the country. Although the U.S. Department of Education expects an average 2 percent national increase in public high school graduates between academic years 2006–07 and 2019–20, it varies significantly among states. Twenty-seven states are projecting decreases—mostly Northern states—with 21 states anticipated decreases of 5 percent or more, according to a department report.

Fewer new students can yield some savings, Blakey noted. While the declining enrollments result in less tuition revenue, colleges can save money by cutting course sections and related expenses that are no longer in demand, she said.

In high demand

San Bernardino Valley College (SBVC) in California has no shortage of people who want to take classes, yet enrollment is down 14 percent from last year. That’s because the state mandates how many full-time equivalent students it will fund, and this year that number was cut. If the college admits more than that cut-off number, it assumes the costs, which SBVC can’t afford, according to President Debra Daniels.

Many of the classrooms have lines out the door of people just hoping that they can take the seat of someone who may not show up for class.

“It breaks my heart,” Daniels said. “People want in and they can’t get in.”

Community college leaders in California are now concerned about possible mid-year cuts by the state, which would prompt them to turn away more students, cut programs, or reduce classes or student services.

Most California community colleges are reporting enrollment drops for the fall. When the final numbers come in, many will likely see declines of 2 percent to 5 percent. A couple of colleges may even see decreases near 18 percent.

“Community colleges are the economic engine that will drive the recovery. If we can’t take in the students that will be part of that recovery, then we can’t be part of the solution,” Daniels said.

Fewer credit hours

At Metropolitan Community College (MCC) in Missouri, enrollment is about the same as it was last fall. However, students are signing up for fewer credit hours. College officials are trying to determine the reason for that.

“It’s a little surprising,” said Tom Vansaghi, associate vice chancellor of communications and community relations, noting that unemployment is still hovering around 9 percent in Kansas City, so it’s unlikely that more people have gone back to work.

MCC had anticipated a 4 percent increase in enrollment. While it’s not a “sky-falling problem,” the lower enrollments—and resulting less tuition revenue—could affect the college’s budget, Vansaghi said.

Cape Cod Community College in Massachusetts is also seeing flat headcount numbers for the fall, with students taking fewer credit hours. The economy is not allowing residents a lot of extra cash to take classes nor the extra time to do so because they are working longer hours or multiple jobs, said Michael Gross, a spokesperson for the college.

In Kansas, Butler Community College is faring much the same, though a leveling-out was expected as people there are starting to find jobs.

“We knew it was going to level out when people started going to go back to work,” said Bill Rinkenbaugh, vice president for student services.

Urban growth

Many of the two-year colleges that continue to grow are seeing modest, single-digit enrollment increases in contrast to the double-digit increases that some institutions experiences over the past few years.

Ivy Tech Community College in Indiana has grown 73 percent over the last seven years. This year, the college is up about 2 percent. With the rising costs of four-year institutions, families continue to look at community colleges as an alternative to more expensive institutions, said Ivy Tech President Thomas Snyder.

Delgado Community College in Louisiana and Wake Technical Community College in North Carolina also are seeing growth. Wake Tech is up about 2,000 students, putting the college near the 20,000 mark, and it has a waiting list for many courses. Raleigh, where the college is located, is experiencing a population boom, with about 25,000 new residents each year. That increase has contributed to enrollment growth at the college, said President Stephen Scott.

The college’s growing number of online course offerings has also been an enticement. Last year, nearly 6,000 students enrolled in one or more online classes.

A new challenge

In Missouri, Three Rivers Community College (TRCC) this fall has seen a 17 percent increase in headcount, putting the college’s headcount at more than 4,300 students. That’s attributed to several factors, including quality courses and a competitive job market, which workers seeking training for those jobs, said Wesley Payne, vice president for learning,. TRCC also has increased its number of sites and online courses.

The growth comes with a challenge, Payne noted.

“While we’re experiencing sky-rocketing enrollment, we’re also experiencing shrinking state funding,” he said, noting it's an issue nearly all community colleges across the country continue to face.